" You could be on your death bed in North Van-Seymour and still be elected as a Liberal". The former statement was spoken by David Shreck, former BC NDP MLA for North Vancouver Lonsdale. No question it's a very tough up hill fight for the NDP but, could Mr. Hanson win over Jane Thornthwaite with the BC Liberals sagging popularity? One wonders if the Conservatives run a candidate and the vote is split with the Liberals if an NDP election victory in the DNV-esque, NV-Seymour riding could be on the horizon? The last time the NDP held the riding was in 1972 when Colin Gableman held the seat during the Dave Barrett era.
Jim Hanson is the BC NDP candidate for NV-Seymour.
19 comments:
Hanson showed up at the DNV & CNV ACMs. Kudos for that.
Family man, well-spoken, and not a boor.
Get rid of the Libs and bring on the NDP in North Van Seymour.
We have nothing to lose, except maybe the SmartMeters.
NFW...
N. Van Dist. didn't vote for the union candidates in the civic election and will be unlikely to do so provincially.
And there's always a chance that Jane won't be the Liberal candidate - at least if the Libs come to their senses. Guilty but not really guilty?
Better chance that pigs will fly....
Jane is a very hard worker and if the Liberals don't endorse her candidacy there will be trouble in the ranks.
Also, I don't think DNV voters will be too happy if Little jumps ship and causes the taxpayers approximately $90,000.00 for a byelection -- if he is elected MLA.
The whole thing leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Bring on the NDP!
People who say "Bring on the NDP" must have very short memories of what they did to this province.
Short memories? That was over 15 years ago! I feel the NDP has changed. They are not the NDP of the 90's, but more like what the Socreds use to be like.
Adrian Dix is like the Socreds?!
The NDP are dead losers in North and West Van in a head-on runoff against ONE non-socialist party.
Their only hope is that the Conservatives get traction and neatly split the vote.
Their worst case scenario is that the Conservatives take over from the Liberals and become the new free enterprise party or that the Conservatives fizzle and they have to face just the Liberals.
The latest Ipsos-Reed poll results (a few days old) show the BC Conservatives tied with the Libs.
Good news for the NDP unless the Cons continue to accelerate and the Libs baff out.
Then the NDP will lose to the Cons instead of losing to the Libs.
Your predictions are a little early. A lot can change in a year and a half.
My predicitions agree with those of former NDP MLA David Shrek, and I'm pretty comfortable that the NDP will not be elected in N.Van/Seymour if their opponents are an unfractured free enterprise party.
But, anything is possible in politics.
Do you have any idea how many Conservatives would not vote for the current Liberal candidate? Now,if someone like Mike Little was running for the Liberals that might keep the Conservative vote.
Good point. I think that the current prov. liberals are a union of fed. libs and cons.
Some typically hold their noses and vote for a prov. lib. that may have fed. leanings with which they don't necessarily agree.
Point being a united free enterprise party, whether prov. lib or con will typically easily defeat the NDP in Seymour.
When Campbell was at the helm of the prov. libs. the fed. libs had to hold their noses.
With Clark as premier the fed. cons need to decide whether the risk of leaving the prov. libs and voting prov. con is worth the potential of handing the seat to the NDP.
So, as it stands today there are really 3 scenarios:
1. Libs retain fed. con supporters then libs. take Seymour.
2. Prov. cons siphon sufficient support from prov. libs to become the new dominant right centre party and cons take Seymour.
3. Prov. libs and cons split the centre right vote then NDP has a shot at taking Seymour.
The last time the NDP held the riding was in 1972 when Colin Gableman held the seat during the Dave Barrett era.
I can't find evidence of a current Conservative candidate for NV-Seymour at this time.
Gary Hee ran in 2009
Jim Hanson is a well qualified candidate. If his party works very hard, seeks out its demographics, appeals strongly where the party's support lies, does a lot of door knocking, among other things, it might have a decent swing at the bat.
Jim Hanson will be an excellent MLA.
To those who suggest NDP supporters have a short memory I say get your facts straight. Under the last NDP government in BC we had lower taxes, lower MSP premiums, less costly post-secondary education, lower Hydro rates, less unemployment and better social services. Under the Libs we got a barely-functioning retractable roof on BC Place that looks like a cobweb and cost $800,000. You do the math.
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