Safe is greater than 95% chance of winning seat, Likely is 80%-95% chance, Lean is under 80% chance (if election held today). Methodology here.
(Image below from CBC)
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Is Naomi in Trouble?
Riding projections from Éric Grenier at CBC suggest that the NDP have a reasonable chance to take North Vancouver-Lonsdale. There's some speculation that Yamamoto being hurt by the oil tanker/Kinder Morgan issue.
Safe is greater than 95% chance of winning seat, Likely is 80%-95% chance, Lean is under 80% chance (if election held today). Methodology here.
(Image below from CBC)
Safe is greater than 95% chance of winning seat, Likely is 80%-95% chance, Lean is under 80% chance (if election held today). Methodology here.
(Image below from CBC)
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9 comments:
Watched the debate. Horgan TWICE said that the Liberals were going to win the election. Wow. That is just unreal. His performance - last place.
Greens did much better than expected. I think that they will pick up some NDP seats.
Cristie was the clear winner. Debate favoured the Liberals and they will have my vote.
This televised show, as presently moderated, should not be dignified by calling it a debate. It was a 'talk over each other, ignore the other guy's points and just repeat your slogan' - fest.
As such, it could not be won or lost by anyone. What you could get, is maybe a sense of the operational personality of each person. I found it interesting that Wheeler kind of 'asked permission' a couple of times and apologized quickly when he appeared out of sync with the course of the show. He was even forgotten once by the moderator and almost apologized for THAT.
Now softwood lumber disputes are nothing new to BC and may ultimately be more federal in nature than local, but I really think we need a smarter, more aggressive bunch to be handling the file from the top than GREENS. Not that they don't have smart people, but GREENS pushing for the continuance of our industrial forest industry is a stretch for me to imagine. NDP for all the good you think they will do are at the heart of it idealogues and union/progressive true believers. Praise Pete!! (Seeger). I'm not sure they can make a compromise when needed.
Again, smart not hot are the bunch you want at the table with the lawyers of the American forest giants, not sloganeers.
Are we then left with Clarke and her advisors to stand up for the jobs at risk? Not very likely. As Horgan pointed out repeatedly, there are 30,000 fewer forest industry jobs in BC than when the Liberals began their current run. ( Not sure where his numbers came from).
I did work in the forest industry for decades and it was well known for a very long time that the industry would shrink as the 'working forest' was no longer expanded year over year. Automation is another cause.
It is also true that the export of raw logs has been going on for a long time and you can't just tag that to the Liberals. In school in the seventies, I worked at the booming grounds in North Burnaby shipping logs to Japan when there were more mills operating in BC. At that time you had to get 2 refusals from bc sawmills to be allowed to export your logs. The export company I worked for owned a tiny saw rig onsite that almost never ran. It's purpose was to provide one refusal.
Process our own logs is a great slogan but logging, sorting, selling, transporting, replanting and beancounting of raw logs are still job creators. Maybe it would be a better situation to process these logs in BC, but the number of jobs created per unit output is way less now than it used to be, so it is no panacea and if you want to build a new pulp mill, to handle the waste sawdust and offcuts, good luck. The greenie army of 'no to everything' will be out in full force 'saving the planet' one job at a time.
Best we can do, in my opinion, is a minority government. I'll vote to try bringing that about. Otherwise, it's hopeless.
It's the use of American loggers by contract logging companies that shouldn't be allowed. ( Yes I mean YOU Weyerhaeuser!).
The best solution for me, right now, is a minority government. Maybe that will put some sense into the system.
Still, manufacturing logs into something else is not the panacea for jobs we might imagine if instead, you can charge adequate stumpage on the raw wood fibre. And we aren't doing that according to the Americans.
Oops. My error. Above should read:
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It's the use of American loggers by contract logging companies that shouldn't be allowed. ( Yes I mean YOU Weyerhaeuser!).
Still, manufacturing logs into something else is not the panacea for jobs we might imagine if instead, you can charge adequate stumpage on the raw wood fibre. And we aren't doing that according to the Americans.
The best solution for me, right now, is a minority government. Maybe that will put some sense into the system.
Polling is floundering. People have been polled to death and are no longer participating in polls. Right now, the Federal Conservative supporters have been getting harassed with daily emails and weekly phone calls for the last three months by the 14 (now 13) leadership candidates. None of those people are voluntarily participating in any polls because they are fatigued. On E day they will show up.
Burnaby North will probably switch to NDP as Richard Lee only barely won that one. Naomi is probably safe as there is no longer a BC Conservative candidate so she will get about 800 votes there, and she beat the NDP Party President who spent like a drunken sailor ($112,000). She will win by 1500 votes against an unknown candidate.
Agree with you on the 'polled to death' observation.
I myself have twice, this month, declined to be polled when phoned at home.
Pollsters are also competing for your phone time with an expanded number of nuisance fund raisers, bank service sellers, 'you have won a cruise!!' scammers, and (my personal favourite) repeated calls from unknown callers claiming to be from Microsoft Technical Services concerned that my computer has a problem and is sending out unsolicited communications.
Last election I believed the pollsters and the biased media. I voted for Thornthwaite because I thought the Libs would be losing seats and I wanted a minority government. Instead I got Christie Clarke who, if I remember correctly, wasn't even able to hold her own seat.
Looks like the same scenario is playing out again though. UP THE LIBERTARIAN PARTY!!! (?)
The Libertarians haven't got a coherent platform. The only thing they seem big on is that the free market will take care of everything. Only slightly less nuance than the BC Liberals and what we see south of the 49th. You know who pays for small government? All the regular people trying to make a living.
Just because it has never worked, doesn't mean it couldn't... :)
I miss the Rhinos.
Rhinos always had the best campaign promises, although these days they don't sound quite so bizarre as they used to.
Heated bird feeders.
Best though was a plan to change our roads from driving on the right, to driving on the left.
It would phased in, with bikes in year one, cars in year two, and trucks in year three.
I like the campaign promise where they were going to take the defense budget and instead raise a legion of yogic flyers to defend the country.
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